According to The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), the weekly market analysis and 'Chart of the Week' published for May 12, 2025, highlight critical macroeconomic trends and price movements across major assets. The report examines equities volatility and interest rate shifts, directly influencing Bitcoin and altcoin sentiment as traders adjust crypto portfolios in response to stock market signals. The Kobeissi Letter notes recent S&P 500 fluctuations and bond yields as factors impacting crypto asset flows, underlining the need for active risk management and close monitoring of cross-market correlations. Source: The Kobeissi Letter Twitter, May 11, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, upcoming key retail earnings data are set to impact trading strategies as earnings season continues. The Kobeissi Letter reports that their trading calls have produced over +370% returns since 2020, highlighting a strong track record. This week, their published trades reflect positioning ahead of major retail earnings, which could influence both traditional equities and crypto market sentiment as consumer spending trends are revealed (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 11, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US households have depleted $3 trillion in savings since August 2021, fully exhausting the $2.1 trillion in excess savings accumulated during the pandemic by Q2 2024 (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 10, 2025). This rapid drawdown in household liquidity suggests diminished consumer financial resilience, which could reduce retail investment flows into both traditional and crypto markets. Crypto traders should watch for potential shifts in market sentiment as reduced household savings may impact demand for risk assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US households have depleted $3 trillion in savings since August 2021, wiping out the $2.1 trillion in excess savings accumulated from March 2020 to August 2021. This depletion, confirmed as of Q2 2024, signals reduced consumer liquidity and waning disposable income, which typically dampens risk-on asset trading. For crypto traders, this trend may result in lower retail participation and increased volatility in cryptocurrencies as traditional investment flows contract. Source: The Kobeissi Letter (May 10, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, China's central bank increased its gold reserves by approximately 70,000 troy ounces in April 2025, pushing total holdings to a record 73.8 million ounces. This marks the sixth consecutive month of gold accumulation, with total increases reaching nearly 1 million ounces in half a year (The Kobeissi Letter, May 9, 2025). For cryptocurrency traders, this sustained gold accumulation signals persistent demand for alternative stores of value amid global economic uncertainty, potentially increasing investment flows into digital assets like Bitcoin as investors seek diversified hedges.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, 0DTE (zero-day-to-expiry) options accounted for 67% of total options trading volume on Tuesday, marking an all-time high. Over the past three years, the volume share of these high-risk instruments has more than doubled, indicating a significant surge in risk appetite among traders (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 8, 2025). This rapid shift toward ultra-short-term derivatives trading often signals a growing preference for high volatility plays, which can spill over into major crypto assets as traders seek similar rapid-return opportunities. The increased use of 0DTE options is likely to amplify short-term volatility in both traditional equity and cryptocurrency markets, as heightened risk-taking tends to correlate with larger price swings in digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US companies announced $233.8 billion in stock buybacks in April 2025, marking the second-highest monthly total since records began in 1984. This sharp increase, compared to just $39.1 billion in March, signals renewed corporate confidence and liquidity in the equity markets (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 8, 2025). For crypto traders, this surge in buybacks often reflects improving risk appetite and can lead to increased capital flows into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as investors seek higher returns. Monitoring stock buyback trends is crucial for anticipating shifts in liquidity that could impact both traditional and digital asset markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, institutional investors are continuing to decrease their stock market exposure, as evidenced by funding spreads dropping 8 basis points last week to the lowest level since August 2024 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 6, 2025). Funding spreads gauge institutional appetite for long positions in stocks via futures, options, and swaps. This decline signals weakening institutional confidence in equities, which often drives capital into alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies. Traders should monitor this shift as reduced equity demand could boost crypto market inflows, potentially increasing volatility and trading opportunities in digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Treasury yield curve has steepened to approximately 50 basis points, marking its highest level since February 2022 after 793 consecutive days of inversion—the longest streak in history (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 6, 2025). The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries has remained positive for the past 8 months. This steepening signals a shift in market sentiment about economic growth and inflation, which is closely monitored by crypto traders as it often impacts risk appetite and liquidity across global markets. Historically, a normalized yield curve can lead to increased volatility and capital flows into cryptocurrencies as investors rebalance portfolios in response to changing macroeconomic conditions.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a short position in the S&P 500 was initiated as the index approached 5700 prior to the weekend, resulting in a gain of nearly 100 points as of today (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 6, 2025). This sharp movement in traditional equity markets signals heightened volatility, which often prompts increased crypto trading activity as investors seek alternative assets. Traders should monitor correlations between the S&P 500 downturn and potential inflows into high-liquidity cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as risk-off sentiment in equities can drive capital rotation into digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), their premium members received an alert to short the S&P 500 as it approached the 5700 level before the weekend. As of May 6, 2025, these short positions are now nearly +100 points profitable (source: @KobeissiLetter, Twitter). This significant drop in the S&P 500 suggests increased risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, which historically leads to heightened volatility and potential capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market. Traders should closely monitor Bitcoin and major altcoins for possible bullish momentum as equity weakness may drive institutional and retail interest toward digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a premium buy alert for gold was issued on Friday at the $3255 level, and those long positions have already turned profitable with a $130 price increase today (Source: The Kobeissi Letter Twitter, May 6, 2025). This trading signal indicates strong bullish momentum in the gold market, providing actionable insights for traders focusing on breakout strategies and momentum trading in precious metals.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US technology stocks have reached their lowest relative price performance against global technology stocks in approximately 18 months, dropping to 1.6 points. Simultaneously, the ratio of US tech stocks relative to US non-tech stocks has declined to 1.5 points, also marking an 18-month low (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 6, 2025). This dual downturn signals increased caution for traders, as weakening relative strength may indicate a shift in capital allocation away from US technology equities toward other sectors or regions. Active traders should closely monitor momentum indicators and sector rotation patterns to identify potential short-term selling opportunities or shifts in leadership within the broader equity market.

According to The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, the commodities market is currently experiencing greater volatility than equities, making it one of the most tradable environments for active traders. This heightened price action provides increased opportunities for short-term trading strategies, with commodity futures and related derivatives showing significant moves recently (Source: @KobeissiLetter, May 5, 2025). Traders should monitor volatility levels and utilize advanced risk management tools to capitalize on these price swings, as suggested by the ongoing premium analysis alerts shared by The Kobeissi Letter.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a buy alert was issued for gold at $3255 on Friday, and positions are now in profit following a significant $90 price surge today (source: The Kobeissi Letter). This move confirms bullish momentum and suggests strong institutional demand. Traders monitoring gold futures should note the breakout above recent resistance, as this price action could attract further momentum buying and short covering. Continued monitoring of volume and order flow is essential for assessing the sustainability of this rally (source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter).

According to @KobeissiLetter, the Volatility Index (VIX) has recently returned to normal levels, despite persistent market uncertainty (source: Twitter/@KobeissiLetter, May 5, 2025). Traders are advised to watch for any sudden spikes in the VIX, as such moves could trigger significant and rapid price action in gold. Monitoring VIX trends is crucial for anticipating potential volatility-driven gold trading opportunities.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Volatility Index (VIX) has returned to normal levels despite lingering market uncertainty. The Kobeissi Letter notes that if the VIX experiences another spike, it could trigger significant volatility and explosive price movements in gold. Traders are advised to monitor the VIX closely for signals of impending shifts in gold trading opportunities, as real-time updates are provided by The Kobeissi Letter (source: @KobeissiLetter on Twitter, May 5, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), the weekly analysis for May 5th highlights key technical trends and support-resistance levels impacting major cryptocurrencies, as detailed in their published Chart of the Week (source: Kobeissi Letter, May 4, 2025). This week’s report identifies crucial chart patterns and volume shifts, suggesting possible breakout opportunities and risk zones for active traders. The Kobeissi Letter’s data-driven approach offers actionable signals for swing and day traders looking to optimize entries and exits in volatile crypto markets (source: Kobeissi Letter, May 4, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), the weekly market report for May 5th, 2025 highlights significant cryptocurrency market trends and actionable trading signals. The featured Chart of the Week provides detailed technical analysis on major digital assets, focusing on price levels, volume trends, and potential breakout points. This edition emphasizes closely-watched resistance and support zones, offering traders guidance on entry and exit strategies based on current market momentum (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 4, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, traders are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week amid renewed pressure from former President Trump to cut interest rates (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 4, 2025). The Kobeissi Letter notes that their trading portfolio has returned over 370% since 2020. Market participants are anticipating volatility in both traditional and crypto markets as the Fed's rate decision approaches, with rate-sensitive assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum likely to see increased trading activity depending on Powell's stance.